The Impact of Strict Public Health Measures on COVID-19 Transmission in Developing Countries: The Case of Kuwait.

Background: Many countries have succeeded in curbing the initial outbreak of COVID-19 by imposing strict public health control measures. However, little is known about the effectiveness of such control measures in curbing the outbreak in developing countries. In this study, we seek to assess the impact of various outbreak control measures in Kuwait to gain more insight into the outbreak progression and the associated healthcare burden. Methods: We use a SEIR mathematical model to simulate the first wave of the epidemic outbreak of COVID-19 in Kuwait with additional testing and hospitalization compartments. We calibrate our model by using a NBD observational framework for confirmed case and death counts. We simulate trajectories of model forecasts and assess the effectiveness of public health interventions by using maximum likelihood to estimate both the basic and effective reproduction numbers. Results: Our results indicate that the early strict control measures had the effect of delaying the intensity of the outbreak but were unsuccessful in reducing the effective reproduction number below 1. Forecasted model trajectories suggest a need to expand the healthcare system capacity to cope with the associated epidemic burden of such ineffectiveness. Conclusion: Strict public health interventions may not always lead to the same desired outcomes, particularly when population and demographic factors are not accounted for as in the case in some developing countries. Real-time dynamic modeling can provide an early assessment of the impact of such control measures as well as a forecasting tool to support outbreak surveillance and the associated healthcare expansion planning.

SARS-CoV-2: Possible recombination and emergence of potentially more virulent strains.

COVID-19 is challenging healthcare preparedness, world economies, and livelihoods. The infection and death rates associated with this pandemic are strikingly variable in different countries. To elucidate this discrepancy, we analyzed 2431 early spread SARS-CoV-2 sequences from GISAID. We estimated continental-wise admixture proportions, assessed haplotype block estimation, and tested for the presence or absence of strains' recombination. Herein, we identified 1010 unique missense mutations and seven different SARS-CoV-2 clusters. In samples from Asia, a small haplotype block was identified, whereas samples from Europe and North America harbored large and different haplotype blocks with nonsynonymous variants. Variant frequency and linkage disequilibrium varied among continents, especially in North America. Recombination between different strains was only observed in North American and European sequences. In addition, we structurally modelled the two most common mutations, Spike_D614G and Nsp12_P314L, which suggested that these linked mutations may enhance viral entry and replication, respectively. Overall, we propose that genomic recombination between different strains may contribute to SARS-CoV-2 virulence and COVID-19 severity and may present additional challenges for current treatment regimens and countermeasures. Furthermore, our study provides a possible explanation for the substantial second wave of COVID-19 presented with higher infection and death rates in many countries.

Clinical characteristics and outcomes of COVID-19 patients with diabetes mellitus in Kuwait.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 has a highly variable clinical presentation, ranging from asymptomatic to severe respiratory symptoms and death. Diabetes seems to be one of the main comorbidities contributing to a worse COVID-19 outcome. OBJECTIVE: In here we analyze the clinical characteristics and outcomes of diabetic COVID-19 patients Kuwait. METHODS: In this single-center, retrospective study of 417 consecutive COVID-19 patients, we analyze and compare disease severity, outcome, associated complications, and clinical laboratory findings between diabetic and non-diabetic COVID-19 patients. RESULTS: COVID-19 patients with diabetes had more ICU admission than non-diabetic COVID-19 patients (20.1% vs. 16.8%, p < 0.001). Diabetic COVID-19 patients also recorded higher mortality in comparison to non-diabetic COVID-19 patients (16.7% vs. 12.1%, p < 0.001). Diabetic COVID-19 patients had significantly higher prevalence of comorbidities, such as hypertension. Laboratory investigations also highlighted notably higher levels of C-reactive protein in diabetic COVID019 patients and lower estimated glomerular filtration rate. They also showed a higher incidence of complications. logistic regression analysis showed that every 1 mmol/L increase in fasting blood glucose in COVID-19 patients is associated with 1.52 (95% CI: 1.34-1.72, p < 0.001) times the odds of dying from COVID-19. CONCLUSION: Diabetes is a major contributor to worsening outcomes in COVID-19 patients. Understanding the pathophysiology underlining these findings could provide insight into better management and improved outcome of such cases.

Outcomes of COVID-19: Disparities by ethnicity.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the role of ethnicity in COVID-19 outcome disparities in a cohort in Kuwait. METHODS: This is a retrospective analysis of 405 individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 in Kuwait. Outcomes such as symptoms severity and mortality were considered. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to report the odds ratios (OR) for ICU admission and dying from COVID-19. RESULTS: The cohort included 290 Arabs and 115 South Asians. South Asians recorded significantly higher COVID-19 death rates compared to Arabs (33% vs. 7.6%, P value<0.001). When compared to Arabs, South Asians also had higher odds of being admitted to the ICU (OR = 6.28, 95% CI: 3.34-11.80, p < 0.001). South Asian patients showed 7.62 (95% CI: 3.62-16.02, p < 0.001) times the odds of dying from COVID-19. CONCLUSION: COVID-19 patients with South Asians ethnicity in Kuwait are more likely to have worse prognosis and outcome when compared to patients with Arab ethnicity. This suggest a possible role for ethnicity in COVID-19 outcome disparities and this role is likely to be multifactorial.

Clinical characteristics of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients in Kuwait.

This is a retrospective single-center study of 417 consecutive patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) admitted to Jaber Al-Ahmad Hospital in Kuwait between February 24, 2020 and May 24, 2020. In total, 39.3% of patients were asymptomatic, 41% were symptomatic with mild/moderate symptoms, 19.7% were admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). Most common symptoms in cohort patients were fever (34.3%) and dry cough (32.6%) while shortness in breath was reported in (75.6%) of ICU admissions. Reported complications requiring ICU admission included Sepsis (68.3%), acute respiratory distress syndrome (95.1%) and heart failure (63.4%). ICU patients were more likely to have comorbidities, in comparison to non-ICU patients, including diabetes (35.4% vs 20.3%) and hypertension (40.2% vs 26.9%). Mortality rate of cohort was 14.4% and mean age of death was 54.20 years (± 11.09) and 90% of death cases were males. Chest high-resolution computed tomography for ICU cases reveled multifocal large patchy areas of ground glass opacification mixed with dense consolidation. Cases admitted to ICU showed abnormal levels of markers associated with infection, inflammation, abnormal blood clotting, heart problems and kidney problems. Mean hospital stay for asymptomatic cases was 20.69 days ±8.57 and for mild/moderate cases was 21.4 days ±8.28. Mean stay in ICU to outcome for survivors was 11.95 days ±8.96 and for death cases 13.15 days ±10.02. In this single-center case series of 417 hospitalized COVID-19 patients in Kuwait 39.3% were asymptomatic cases, 41% showed mild/moderate symptoms and 18.7% were admitted to ICU with a mortality rate of 14.4%.